China, Brazil or India

[RikaKazak]

Alright guys, so with the nice big pullbacks in all...I'm thinking about picking up a little index investing in one of these countries (I do monthly index investing in the U.S./international, this investment is 100% separate from that and is suppose to be a buy/hold for 40 years that I'm using with extra money thanks to a good poker month ;) )


China: I LOVE their growth opportunity. But their government's attitude does scare me. After all, China petro did lose money when oil was sky high because the Chinese government didn't want gas prices to spike (and made the company sell at a loss...basically saying F U to shareholders) My biggest fear is that their RE is a bubble and when it pops they'll make the bank etc. eat a LOT of the loss and shareholders will get screwed.

India: RE bubble just like china imo But I like their government more then china, and I like the fact instead of "producing" there way to prosperity like china is doing, they're "educating" their way to prosperity imo. But their P/E ratio for their companies is SICK HIGH and almost all of their IPOs are tanking and just paying off debt instead of investing in expansion. A few guys I've talked with are saying India as a whole (and not just RE) is a bubble. I personally don't know, but I do think their RE is a bubble.

Brazil: I like their government the best out of the 3. However Latin American countries LOVE to turn to socialism in down turns (like str8 taking over companies and saying F U to shareholders). Also, Brazil imo has the smallest upside. I think china could and/or India could be superpowers in 100 years, but I doubt Brazil will ever (in 100 year time frame) get that big/good/powerful....too much crime/social factors imo.



SO....I'm leaning towards China, even though I fear they'll get smacked down in 1-5 years when their RE bubble collapses....but I think as long as their government stays in tact they'll surpass the U.S. in dominance as long as they don't turn to pure socialism. Basically as a 5 year investment I doubt I'd buy FXI...but for 40 years I think it's a good buy.

So my question: Anyone know if China has food stamps or rental assistance programs? My wife is going to ask my brother in law who has lived there off and on for a few years, but I was curious if anyone knows. I've tried a google search to no avail I think if they don't have the "bases" for socialism/social programs I might pick up a little china tomorrow ;)





cliff notes: Does china have a food stamp program currently? If not, I'm buying some FXI tomorrow.

[Blotkis]

Invest in the economy that is the most capitalistic, my Econ teacher (a conservative) was showing us the correlation between capitialism and prosperity and the data was pretty staggering. India gogogogo? I would go with India because I have read a good amount of literature that basically says American's are f*cked if they don't start producing more because India is creating a highly skilled, educated and dedicated work force.

[Reef]

China must be doing something right

http://en.ce.cn/National/Politics/200908/25/t20090825_19864373.shtml

[RikaKazak]

Well....I picked up EWZ which is Brazil today. I think all 3 are good picks, but Brazil's pullback was just too sweet. (from where I was interested in it it's pulled back 10.55%) which is more then the 8% china has pulled back and 5% india has.

TBH...I think in the next year I'm going to pick up all 3...and a good portion of each. So I'm just waiting/buying on pullbacks from here on out.

100% agree, capitalism = prosperity...which is why I'm not gogogogo buying Europe...too high of taxes/too big of social programs. (Germany is actually the only country I'm considering specifically buying in Europe...just because it's heads and shoulders above the rest)

[RikaKazak]

Well...I bought some FXI today (tracks china)...the pullback was just too sweet (9.1% from where I was watching it).

TBH...I kind of hope it goes lower. Specifically so I can pick up some India on the cheap And maybe even buy some more FXI ;)